油价飙升未必会导致美联储转鹰？美银：也可能大幅降息！
发布时间：2026-03-21 来源：贵人多忘网作者：TMAC松AI
- \u003cdiv class=\"rich_media_content\"\u003e\u003c!--NO_AD_ERROR_2--\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e财联�日讯（编辑 潇湘）\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_BEGIN_0--\u003e美国银行\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_END_0--\u003e周二警告称，押注美联储将对油价上涨采取鹰派应对措施的投资者，可能会误判美联储的动向。该行指出，\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_BEGIN_0--\u003e供应冲击\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_END_0--\u003e也可能导致利率维持稳定甚至大幅下调。\u003c!--NO_AD_0--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_0--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_0--\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e自美伊战争爆发以来，两年期美债收益率与飙升的油价同步波动，反映出市场对借贷成本上升的预期。但美银经济学家Aditya Bhave警告称，这种预期“可能有误”。\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c!--NO_AD_1--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_1--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_1--\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003c!--IMG_0--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e他认为能源冲击未必意味着政策趋紧，因为这可能使央行促进物价稳定与支持就业的\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_BEGIN_1--\u003e双重使命\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_END_1--\u003e产生矛盾。\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e他在周二的报告中写道：“这将加厚\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_BEGIN_2--\u003e政策分布的尾部\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_END_2--\u003e：既存在长期维持利率不变的风险，也存在加息的尾部风险，同时大幅降息的风险也在扩大。”\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e行情数据显示，本月以来短期美债收益率已飙升了�个基点，交易员目前对今年美联储降息幅度的预期�个基点，而美伊冲突爆发前的预期降息幅度则超过�个基点。\u003c!--AI_MID_AD_0--\u003e\u003c!--NO_AD_2--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_2--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_2--\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e在上一交易日突破每�美元后，油价在周二出现了大幅回落。不过，中东紧张局势显然仍未彻底消停，多个产油国的原油减产正在加剧，\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_BEGIN_3--\u003e霍尔木兹海峡\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_END_3--\u003e这一航运瓶颈仍处于近乎停滞的状态。\u003c!--NO_AD_3--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_3--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_3--\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eBhave指出，当前市场反应�年俄乌冲突时几乎如出一辙。他强调，当时美国失业率更低，消费者手握大量刺激资金。\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e“如今劳动力市场疲软，通胀温和攀升，财政支持力度减弱，”他表示，“若油价冲击持续，美联储可能将采取更鸽派的应对措施。”\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e本周美国方面经济焦点将集中于周三公布月\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_BEGIN_4--\u003eCPI\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_END_4--\u003e数据。\u003c/strong\u003e媒体调查的经济学家预测中值显示，当月核心CPI涨幅预计将.2%，整体CPI则预计将环比上.3%。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e花旗经济学家Andrew Hollenhorst在周二报告中指出，随着油价昨日回落，两年期美债收益率月下旬水平仅高出�个基点，经济数据或将重拾部分关联性。该行预计核心通胀环比增幅𰹄.23%，远低于去月水平，印证核心通胀放缓趋势。\u003c!--NO_AD_4--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_4--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_4--\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e“油价上涨意味着整体通胀率上升，但若油价上涨属于短暂现象，其对核心通胀的传导效应将有限，”Hollenhorst指出。\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection\u003e（财联社 潇湘）\u003c/section\u003e\u003cstyle\u003e.rich_media_content{--news-tabel-th-night-color: #444444;--news-font-day-color: #333;--news-font-night-color: #d9d9d9;--news-bottom-distance: 22px}.rich_media_content p:not([data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=image-box]){letter-spacing:.5px;line-height:30px;margin-bottom:var(--news-bottom-distance);word-wrap:break-word}.rich_media_content .qn-editor-copy p:not([data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=image-box]){letter-spacing:unset;line-height:unset;margin-bottom:unset;word-wrap:unset}.rich_media_content{color:var(--news-font-day-color);font-size:18px}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]):not([dark-mode-disable=true]) .rich_media_content p:not([data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=image-box]){letter-spacing:.5px;line-height:30px;margin-bottom:var(--news-bottom-distance);word-wrap:break-word}body:not([data-weui-theme=light]):not([dark-mode-disable=true]) .rich_media_content .qn-editor-copy p:not([data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=image-box]):not(.qn-editor-copy){letter-spacing:unset;line-height:unset;margin-bottom:unset;word-wrap:unset}body:not([data-weui-theme=light]):not([dark-mode-disable=true]) .rich_media_content{color:var(--news-font-night-color)}}.data_color_scheme_dark .rich_media_content p:not([data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=image-box]){letter-spacing:.5px;line-height:30px;margin-bottom:var(--news-bottom-distance);word-wrap:break-word}.data_color_scheme_dark .rich_media_content .qn-editor-copy p:not([data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=image-box]){letter-spacing:unset;line-height:unset;margin-bottom:unset;word-wrap:unset}.data_color_scheme_dark .rich_media_content{color:var(--news-font-night-color)}.data_color_scheme_dark .rich_media_content{font-size:18px}.rich_media_content p[data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=image-box]{margin-bottom:11px}.rich_media_content\u003ediv:not(.qnt-video),.rich_media_content\u003esection{margin-bottom:var(--news-bottom-distance)}.rich_media_content hr{margin-bottom:var(--news-bottom-distance)}.rich_media_content .link_list{margin:0;margin-top:20px;min-height:0!important}.rich_media_content blockquote{background:#f9f9f9;border-left:6px solid #ccc;margin:1.5em 10px;padding:.5em 10px}.rich_media_content blockquote p{margin-bottom:0!important}.data_color_scheme_dark .rich_media_content blockquote{background:#323232}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]):not([dark-mode-disable=true]) .rich_media_content blockquote{background:#323232}}.rich_media_content ol[data-ex-list]{--ol-start: 1;--ol-list-style-type: decimal;list-style-type:none;counter-reset:olCounter calc(var(--ol-start,1) - 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